SpaceX's first lockup expiry — stock bounces despite fears of a selling flood

SpaceX debuted on the public market in June at an IPO price of $135, with 638.9 million shares initially in public float. On August 6, its first lockup expiration made an additional 911.5 million insider and early-investor shares — about 43% more than the existing float, worth roughly $101 billion — eligible for sale, more than doubling the freely tradable share of the company from 4.9% to 11.8% of shares outstanding.

The prior trading day, August 5, SpaceX shares had already fallen roughly 12-14% on worries about heavy AI data-center spending, raising fears that the lockup expiry would trigger another wave of selling. Instead, the stock dipped to $105.11 intraday before quickly recovering to $111.17, a 2.6% gain — the anticipated flood of selling didn't immediately materialize.

The unlock isn't a single event: it's staggered across nine tranches. The next batch of 319 million shares becomes eligible on August 12, with additional tranches following in September and October, meaning supply pressure could resurface repeatedly in the months ahead.

Even so, SpaceX shares remain down roughly half from their June 16 peak of $225.64 and about 20% below the $135 IPO price. SpaceX is a separate public company from Tesla, but with cross-investment between Musk's companies growing — including the newly confirmed Terafab chip plant — its stock trajectory is a useful gauge of Musk's personal balance sheet and bandwidth, one Tesla shareholders may want to track alongside Tesla's own numbers.