Barclays sees Tesla Q3 deliveries at 475K, beating consensus — opposite of Goldman's cut
Barclays projects Tesla will deliver 475,000 vehicles in Q3 — above the Bloomberg-compiled consensus of 466,000 — directly contradicting Goldman Sachs's recent cut to 435,000. Barclays kept its $370 price target and Equal Weight rating, citing FSD rollout as a margin tailwind.
Wall Street estimates for Tesla's Q3 deliveries are sharply diverging ahead of earnings. Barclays analyst Dan Levy now expects 475,000 vehicles — well above the Bloomberg consensus of 466,000.
That directly contradicts Goldman Sachs, which cut its own estimate to 435,000 just days earlier, citing weaker-than-expected sales in the U.S., China, and Europe. Barclays instead points to strength in Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia, plus FSD adoption, as offsetting factors.
Barclays maintained its $370 price target and Equal Weight rating, but argued that Tesla's core fundamentals — deliveries and margins — have become an 'afterthought' to the broader AI and robotaxi narrative now driving the stock.
The firm also flagged concerns about Q4, suggesting the potential Q3 beat could partly reflect seasonal timing rather than a durable trend.
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