New Street Research: Tesla FSD nearing an 'iPhone moment' — 'give us two more quarters'
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu compared Tesla's FSD to the early iPhone — dismissed at first as 'just an expensive phone' before its platform value reshaped the market — arguing Tesla could be nearing a similar inflection point, with Q2's delivery beat as an early signal.
Wall Street still largely values Tesla as a traditional automaker, according to Ferragu. He argues that mirrors how consumers initially saw the iPhone as merely a pricier phone — only for its platform potential to redefine the market once recognized. If investors start viewing Tesla's vehicles as AI-driven platforms rather than cars, he says, the company's addressable market could expand well beyond today's assumptions.
As early evidence the shift is underway, Ferragu pointed to Tesla's second-quarter deliveries beating expectations, which he reads as a sign that FSD adoption is starting to translate into real demand.
He stopped short of declaring the inflection point confirmed, saying 'give us two more quarters' to see where the trend is heading — framing the next two quarters of data as the real test of his thesis.
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